Analysts Divided on PSP Launch

With thirty-three per cent of North American retailers selling out of the Sony Playstation Portable (PSP), analysts are divided on the success of the launch. Or, maybe I should say, two analysts, chosen by Gamespot are divided on the success of the launch. While American Technology Research's PJ McNealy is "hesitant to draw any macro-level conclusions about the success or failure of the PSP" over the long term, the fact that only 33% of retailers have sold out of the PSP shows a "solid but not spectacular" launch, which, despite the hype, has done little in terms of financial impact on video game publishers.

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Seeing the glass as half-full is UBS analyst Mike Wallace, who has no problem making a long tem conclusion based on the launch sales. Wallace, with only the rough data in front of him, has decided the PSP will win the handheld wars, and will be the "dominant handheld gaming device in two years".



Gamespot's article also quotes Electronics Boutique CEO Jeff Griffiths who believes the PSP will be an overwhelming success, due to its "great start", and the handheld's focus on 18- to 34-year-olds, citing the success of the PlayStation when it reached and successfully grabbed the older audience.



Personally, I believe it's too early to make any conclusions, however, I do think there's something to be said about the Nintendo DS launch, which had available the same number of units, but sold many more at launch (90% of them). I find it odd that neither Wallace nor Griffiths brought the Nintendo DS sales comparison into their analyses, particularly if you're so bold as to call a handheld winner so early in the game. It does make me wonder about how honest Wallace and Griffiths are being. Griffiths needs PSP sales to sound successful for EB to sound successful, in order to please investors. UBS is an investment company which needs people to invest in stocks like Sony, in order for them to make money. American Technology Research, however, is an employee-owned firm, which claims to be "independent and unbiased", which would explain why ATR's McNealy refused to make any outrageous claims based on so-so launch sales.