PS3 To Get No More than 50% Market Share

GamesIndustry is today reporting on a marketing research report from DFC Intelligence which predicts that the PS3 will top out at 50% market share with the Xbox 360 topping out at 40% and the Nintendo Revolution, at best, 35%. Currently, the PS2 holds 70% of the market. The report also suggests that by 2009, the global video game industry will reach $41 billion. Currently, the video game biz is between a $10 and $18 billion industry, depending on which report you choose to believe. In general, I agree with both assessments.

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The PS3 will not enjoy the same success as previous Playstations...it's too complicated and will be too expensive to gain saturation, especially with the Xbox 360 getting a 6 month head start on it, much less the competition for Xmas, 2006, when the PS3 is still new and the Xbox 360 is a year old, allowing MS to cut prices on the 360. Throw in the Nintendo Revolution and I'd personally predict that the PS3 will reach about 40%, the Xbox 360 around 40% and the Revolution around 20%. I'll check up on these predictions a year and a half from now and see how I did.