PS3 To Get No More than 50% Market Share

GamesIndustry is today reporting on a marketing research report from DFC Intelligence which predicts that the PS3 will top out at 50% market share with the Xbox 360 topping out at 40% and the Nintendo Revolution, at best, 35%. Currently, the PS2 holds 70% of the market. The report also suggests that by 2009, the global video game industry will reach $41 billion. Currently, the video game biz is between a $10 and $18 billion industry, depending on which report you choose to believe. In general, I agree with both assessments.

The PS3 will not enjoy the same success as previous Playstations...it's too complicated and will be too expensive to gain saturation, especially with the Xbox 360 getting a 6 month head start on it, much less the competition for Xmas, 2006, when the PS3 is still new and the Xbox 360 is a year old, allowing MS to cut prices on the 360. Throw in the Nintendo Revolution and I'd personally predict that the PS3 will reach about 40%, the Xbox 360 around 40% and the Revolution around 20%. I'll check up on these predictions a year and a half from now and see how I did.