On Monday Jer reported
the next-gen console sales predictions of the market research firm DFC Intelligence. According to the DFC report, "the PS3 will top out at 50% market share with the Xbox 360 topping out at 40% and the Nintendo Revolution, at best, 35%". Today we have the predictions of Kagan Research
. Kagan takes into account the early release of the Xbox360, and puts the preditions here: "[I]n 2006, the Xbox 360 will have a market share of 54 percent, followed by the PS3 at 27 percent and the Revolution at 19 percent. In 2007, however, the Xbox 360 will lose its lead to the PS3, dropping to a market share of 37 percent, with the PS3 capturing 45 percent." The two research groups aren't that far apart, but it is interesting that, really, the Nintendo Revolution isn't much of a factor for either of them.
Lunabean Research (meaning Jer and me talking about stuff) has concluded that the next gen console war will be between the PS3 and the Xbox360, in that people, when buying a generic "game console" will decide between the PS3 and Xbox360, and the PS3 will win, but by a smidge. The Revolution purchase will be a completely separate decision, based on whether or not people want access to the awesomeness that is Nintendo games.
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