In today's CNNMoney.com Game Over column by Chris Morris, Morris points to analysts and insiders who believe an October (or even late September) Wii launch would be the best move Nintendo could make, and, therefore, the move Nintendo is most likely to make.
First, an October Wii release would give Nintendo a month's head start on the expected November launch of the PS3. Despite the fact that the two consoles couldn't be more night and day, any jump start one could get on the other could prove to be invaluable.
Second, early manufacturing of the Wii would help Nintendo meet consumer demand for the holiday season, a lesson learned from the Xbox 360's launch last November. Also, since the PS3 is expected to have the same, or even worse, manufacturing problems as the Xbox 360, flooding the holiday market with readily available Wiis would only serve Nintendo well.
And, third, Nintendo is no stranger to October console releases, as it's the month that the original NES and the N64 both hit the retail shelves for the first time, and both consoles were overwhelming successes. The Nintendo Gamecube and its November launch didn't quite do the job. My superstitious nature says that if October has proven to have good Nintendo mojo, stick with it.