It's no secret that we're not huge fans of Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter. While we have nothing against the guy personally, his record for making accurate predictions regarding the direction of the video game industry has been less than impressive. Despite this, he seems to be the go to guy when it comes to the investment realm of video game analysis, which is why we go a little nuts when we hear him say things that don't seem thought out.
Today's Pachter crime comes via an interview on GameTrailer's Bonus Room
, where he states that, if EA acquires Take-Two
, EA will "have an economic incentive to delay [Grand Theft Auto IV]".
The suggestion is that EA would hold the title until the 4th quarter, when the video game industry makes most of its money. These are the kinds of Pachter-esque predictions that drive us nuts, as they fail to take into account certain unique variables.
If this were any other highly anticipated game, Pachter would have a case. But it's not. This is Grand Theft Auto 4
. With its April 29th release date, it's expected to bring in over $360 million in retail sales in the first week. If it is successful, it will beat out Halo 3
, which, with $300 million in sales, holds the record for the highest grossing opening day in entertainment history.
Of course, the game's sales won't stop there. This will, most certainly, be the summer of GTA IV
(and R.E.M., but that has nothing to do with anything). People will be playing it left and right. My dad, who buys, perhaps, one game every two years, will be playing it. Then, come the holidays, all of those people who haven't bought it, will buy it.
GTA games, particularly those that are supposed to be absolutely ground-breaking (and online), don't die for years (btw, our 2004 GTA: Vice City Game Guide
remains one of our most popular). In other words, when it comes to the release of GTA
titles, it's not a matter of how much money the company is going to make, it's a matter of when that company is going to begin taking in millions upon millions of dollars. EA likes money just as much as the next company, and they're not going to delay making money in the second quarter, as they'd still be racking it up in the 4th.
As a final note, we should remember that in June of last year, Pachter predicted a delay of GTA IV
's original release date of October 16th, 2007. While Take-Two did delay the release, it was due to delays in development. Pachter predicted delays would be due to a desire to avoid competition with other 4th quarter titles
. Rather contradictory to his current path of prediction, is it not?
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